India, UK and Spain are biggest GDP gainers among large economies with 20% average YoY growth

India, UK and Spain are biggest GDP gainers among large economies with 20% average YoY growth

Over the last year, the majority of countries have continued to cope with the economic fallout from the coronavirus epidemic, which had a sizable impact on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Interestingly, despite the pandemic's economic toll, some countries have seen strong GDP growth.

According to Finbold statistics, the United Kingdom, India, and Spain are the largest GDP gainers among large global economies, with an average annual growth rate of 20.7% between September 2020 and September 2021. The United Kingdom, India, and Spain each had a GDP of 22.20%, 20.10%, and 19.80%. Globally, Macau experienced the fastest growth in GDP, up 69.50% year on year.

Elsewhere, Libya's GDP fell by 60.30%, followed by Venezuela's loss of 26.80%. Bolivia was the third largest loser in terms of GDP, with a loss of 24.60%. Trading Economics provides data on the top gainers and losers.

The influence of a pandemic on GDP growth and decline

The gainers and losers in GDP represent how various countries responded to the coronavirus epidemic, which had a significant impact on the majority of economies. The countries' public health initiatives, vaccine rollout pace, fiscal and monetary support, and relative importance of hard-hit sectors such as travel all illustrate the driving disparities between them.

Notably, several of the countries that have seen GDP growth are also close to returning to pre-pandemic levels, owing largely to extended fiscal assistance measures. GDP gains and losses could have been less had it not been for various governments' monetary policies cushioning their economies from a free decline. At the outbreak of the pandemic, the majority of countries implemented measures such as low interest rates and the postponement of certain tax obligations.

Although the economic recovery in advanced economies such as the United States is nearly complete, it fell short of the top gainers, possibly due to more uncertainty surrounding the November 2020 presidential elections and social justice problems. Aspects such as a strengthening employment market underscore the US economy's resurgence despite a high inflation environment that is likely affecting GDP.

In many emerging markets, which are also among the poorest in terms of GDP, vaccination access and government support are limited, and economic recovery is expected to be minimal. For example, Libya and Venezuela have been stricken by societal upheaval, a shrinking economy, and currency devaluation. With inadequate resources to address the health crisis, such countries are expected to struggle indefinitely.

Additionally, some emerging markets are demonstrating a difficulty to sustain fiscal stimulus programmes. In this instance, countries such as Brazil have resolved to reintroduce normalcy, hence increasing the pressure on economic growth.

The bleak future

In general, for global growth to be reflected across all countries, it is necessary to achieve greater rapidity in resolving the health crisis. The pandemic will almost certainly result in significant losses in development progress, particularly with the appearance of novel varieties such as Delta.

Additionally, while fiscal support provided by governments during the pandemic has increased public debt in the majority of economies, low interest rates make debt servicing more manageable and should pave the way for investments in areas such as healthcare, digitalization, and climate change mitigation.

With increasing attention being paid to debt difficulties, most countries are focusing on post-recovery strategies that are more likely to handle immediate challenges than those ahead.